Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 78

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(13:42) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to TB 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-B.Reedy to TB 37 for 15 yards (85-R.Ellison).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.22 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model