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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to TB 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-18-R.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model