Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New York Giants 3

(6:38) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NYG 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model