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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model