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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 89

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to NYG 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model