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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 89

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to TB 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-B.Reedy to TB 44 for 1 yard (18-R.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.17 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP