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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 25

New York Giants 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model