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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model