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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 58

New York Giants 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 15 yards to TB 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP