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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 30

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 15-B.Marshall (36-R.McClain) [93-G.McCoy].

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model