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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model