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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to NYG 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model