Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 10

(:04) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 89-A.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

What Happened

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.02 EP
49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.13 EP