Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 10

(13:02) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to DEN 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 27 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model