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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at DEN 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP