Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 91

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 13

(7:26) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 40, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at LV 31 for 29 yards (7-M.King).

The Three Options

GO -3.92 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.70 EP
76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 91, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model