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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 28

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN-76-M.Garcia was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model