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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 11

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model