Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to DEN 32, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 32. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 34 for 2 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model