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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 44

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model