Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to DEN 21, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at LV 15 for 64 yards (41-E.Harris). Penalty on DEN-91-K.Edebali, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DEN-20-J.Carter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model