4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model