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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 13 for 3 yards (33-D.McDougle).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.16 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP