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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to LAC 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 12 for no gain (42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP