Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 8-D.Kaser punts 50 yards to PHI 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-K.Barner to PHI 20 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis, 30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on PHI-52-N.Goode, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at PHI 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.56 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model