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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 4-P.Dawson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model