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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 2-A.Lee punts 27 yards to SF 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP