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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model