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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model