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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 9 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model