Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to ARI 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 27 for 5 yards (31-R.Mostert). PENALTY on SF-30-A.Jackson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model