Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 12 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 17 for 7 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on SF-82-L.Paulsen, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.54 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model