Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 96

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 12

(3:52) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -3.66 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.70 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 96, worth -5.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model