Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to ARI 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 25 for 7 yards (30-A.Jackson). PENALTY on ARI-80-I.Momah, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at ARI 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.08 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model