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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -0.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model