Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to SF 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 34 for 16 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.37 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model