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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 32

Houston Texans 21 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model