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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 37

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to HOU 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. (The Punt hang-time was 4.50 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model