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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 37

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. (The Punt hang-time was 4.34 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.23 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model