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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 4 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP