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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 22

Houston Texans 44 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model