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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 15

Houston Texans 54 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model