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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 57

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to HOU 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 26 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model