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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to HOU 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.(The Punt hang-time was 4.22 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model