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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 42

Washington Commanders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to KC 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP