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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to WAS 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model