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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 55

Washington Commanders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to KC 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model