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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 3-D.Hopkins 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 1, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.92 EP