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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model