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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 12

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 4-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP